Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 291 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. A new, unnumbered region on
the northeast limb produced numerous C-class events during the
period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 17/0802Z. The other
regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for during the next
three days (18 - 20 Oct). Region 1591 (N07E07) and the new region
on the limb are the only regions that show any potential for M-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind velocity measured at the ACE spacecraft increased from around
350 km/s to around 500 km/s at 16/2300Z. The solar wind then slowly
decreased from around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 440
km/s. These signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from
a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18 - 20
Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Oct 135 Previsto 18 Oct-20 Oct 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 17 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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