Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 agosto 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Aug 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1543 (N21, L=021)
produced the largest event of the period, a B8 flare at 19/2315Z,
off of the northwest limb. Region 1548 (N20E47) also produced a low
level B-class flare. The remaining spotted regions were stable and
quiet. A full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 19/1918Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed
of 605 km/s. STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be
a back-sided event and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next
three days (21-23 August).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 19/2100Z to 20/0000Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on days 1-2 (21-22 August) due to continued effects from
the coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (23 August) conditions
are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Aug 096 Previsto 21 Aug-23 Aug 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 20 Aug 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 05% |
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