Viendo archivo del jueves, 9 agosto 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 222 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Aug 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 1544 (S30W06) was
the most active region on the solar disk, producing three C-class
flares. However, Region 1542 (S14E37) produced the largest flare of
the period, a C8 x-ray flare, at 09/1147Z. Further analysis will be
conducted to determine the geoeffectiveness of any CMEs associated
with this flare as more data becomes available.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 09/0000Z-0300Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet on day one (10 Aug). Days two and three
(Aug 11-12) are expected to be quiet to unsettled due to the effects
of the interaction between the two filaments that lifted off the
solar disk on 07 and 08 Aug and the corotating interaction region
ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Aug 131 Previsto 10 Aug-12 Aug 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 09 Aug 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Aug 012/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 006/005-007/008-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 25% |
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