Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 201 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was high. Shortly after rotating off
the west limb, Region 1520 (S17W90) produced a long duration M7
event with max at 19/0558Z. The event was associated with a Type II
sweep (1110 km/s), a Tenflare (1000 sfu), and a Type IV sweep. A
partial-halo CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C3
coronagraph imagery beginning at 19/0606Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of about 1500 km/s. This CME is not expected to
be geoeffective. Region 1523 (S28W64) and Region 1524 (S16W24)
showed slight decay. Region 1525 (S22W23) increased over the course
of the period and produced a C-flare.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
throughout the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was generally quiet. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 17/1715Z continued with an
enhancement from the 19/0513 M7 event, reaching a max value of 79
PFU at 19/1425Z during the analysis interval. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels for the first and second days (20-21
July). An increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods is expected on the third day (22 July) due to a favorably
positioned coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began 17/1715 is expected to end on 20 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| Clase M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 90% | 20% | 01% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jul 100 Previsto 20 Jul-22 Jul 095/095/100 Media de 90 Días 19 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jul 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-006/005-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 35% |
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