Viendo archivo del domingo, 3 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 155 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1496 (N16E33)
produced an impulsive M3 flare at 03/1755Z. The flare was
accompanied by a Tenflare (320 sfu) at 03/1753Z. A Type II emission
(est 1077 km/s) was also reported at 03/1759Z. A CME was later
observed in LASCO C3 imagery departing the northeast limb at
03/1854Z. Earlier in the day, C3 imagery showed a CME departing the
southeast limb at 03/1342Z associated with a filament eruption.
Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness of
the CMEs. New Region 1499 (N16E50) was numbered today as a small
Dso type group with beta magnetic characteristics. All regions on
the disk were classified as simple alpha or beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(04-06 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Although the solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
remained below 400 km/s for most of the period, the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remaind southward from
approximately 03/0400Z until about 02/1730Z, ranging from -5 nT to
as low as -15 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with an active
period from 03/12-15Z and a minor storm period from 03/15-18Z.
Conditions returned to active levels for the last period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels for days one and two (4-5 June) with
a chance for isolated minor storm periods. Day three (6 June) is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to be in a geoeffective position
throughout the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jun a 06 Jun
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jun 129 Previsto 04 Jun-06 Jun 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 03 Jun 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jun 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jun 014/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 014/020-014/027-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jun a 06 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 60% | 55% |
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