Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 mayo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 May 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N11W18) continues to be the source region for a
majority of the flares, producing nine C-class flares, the largest
of which was a C3 that occurred at 11/2302Z. This region has shown
some signs of decay, but maintains an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration. A full halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at
12/0000Z. Preliminary analysis indicated the edge of the CME may
skirt the earth, but no major impacts are expected.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with isolated M-class flares for the next
three days (13-15 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours with periods of active levels at high latitudes . The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 May),
then fall to quiet levels on day two (14 May). Day three is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels due to the potential glancing blow from todays CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 May a 15 May
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 May 130 Previsto 13 May-15 May 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 12 May 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 May 010/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 May 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 007/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 May a 15 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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