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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours with multiple M-class solar flares observed. Region 1476 (N12E08) was responsible for almost all of the activity with 3 M-class events observed, the largest being a M5/2b event at 10/0418Z. Associated with these events, were discrete frequency radio bursts, Tenflares, and even a Type IV radio sweep. Region 1476 has shown mixed growth and shear effects across the polarities as it continues to evolve. A weak Earth directed CME was observed in STEREO COR2 A and B imagery early in the period. Analysis and current models show this CME joining the current coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Region 1477 (S22E47) was split into two regions today as SDO magnetogram data indicated the leader and follower sunspot groups were actually two magnetic bipoles. Leader group is Region 1477 and follower group is now Region 1478 (S24E55).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three days (11 - 13 May) as Region 1476 continues to grow and evolve.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours with an isolated minor storm period observed at high latitudes. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE spacecraft, showed a continued increase in solar wind speeds to around 620 km/s, a drop off in solar wind density, and the total IMF began to stabilize around 5 nT. These characteristics are indicative of a CH HSS. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods for the next three days (11 - 13 May). The increased activity is due to both the continued CH HSS effects and three weak, slow moving CMEs intertwined within.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 May 131
  Previsto   11 May-13 May  130/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        10 May 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 09 May  019/025
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 10 May  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  012/012-010/012-006/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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