Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 abril 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Apr 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Apr 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N07W19)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares. It showed gradual spot and
penumbral growth during the period as well as a mix of polarities in
its intermediate and trailer portions, which indicated a beta-gamma
magnetic structure. New Region 1457 (N22E41) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (14 - 16 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares from Region 1455.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with a brief period of major storm at high latitudes. The increased
field activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar winds speeds gradually increased
during the first half of the period (maximum speed 693 km/s at
13/0846Z), then gradually decreased during the second half of the
period (minimum speed 544 km/s at 13/1941Z).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (14 -
15 April) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
day 3 (16 April) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Apr 098 Previsto 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 13 Apr 114
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 007/012-010/012-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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