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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 068 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Mar 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C7/Sf flare was observed from Region 1428 (S17W19). Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 - 1800Z. At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March. A sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT). Minor storm periods were observed as a result of the CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of 69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to be under the influence of the CME from 07 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Mar a 11 Mar
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X40%40%40%
Protón99%99%70%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Mar 140
  Previsto   09 Mar-11 Mar  140/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        08 Mar 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Mar  033/064
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  018/027
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  017/027-007/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Mar a 11 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%25%25%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%10%

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