Viendo archivo del martes, 28 febrero 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 059 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Feb 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (29 Feb - 02 Mar) with just a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a period of minor storm levels at some observatories during the local nighttime hours. Quiet conditions prevailed from the beginning of the period until about 07Z when a substorm interval began and continued through about 09Z. The planetary activity reached active levels but several individual stations attained minor storm levels during the disturbance. Activity promptly returned to predominantly quiet levels after the substorm and remained quiet for the rest of the period. The disturbance was preceded by about two hours of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) seen at the ACE spacecraft (0510-0702Z, with maximum southward deflection of -11 nT). The IMF was otherwise predominantly northwards during the interval. ACE data also indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at about 1534Z. The greater than 10 MeV protons observed by GOES returned to background levels late on the 27th and remained there through the end of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first two days (29 Feb - 01 Mar). A slight increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on the third day (02 Mar) due to a small but well positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Feb a 02 Mar
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Feb 103
  Previsto   29 Feb-02 Mar  105/105/105
  Media de 90 Días        28 Feb 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Feb  012/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  008/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Feb a 02 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%15%

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