Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 febrero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 044 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Feb 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days
(14-16 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and
ranged between unsettled to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was the result of a sub-storm as well as the onset of
short lived coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin day 1 (14 February) at quiet to unsettled levels.
Between 06Z and 12Z, an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 11
February is expected at Earth, with a subsequent increase in
geomagnetic activity. Primarily unsettled and active levels are
forecast to persist throughout the day, with an isolated minor storm
possible. Conditions on day 2 (15 February) should begin to subside,
with quiet and unsettled levels expected during recovery from the
transient. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (16
February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Feb 108 Previsto 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 13 Feb 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 012/018-006/008-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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