Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 febrero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 042 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Feb 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a trio of C7 x-ray
events. Regions 1416 (S19W02) and 1417 (N16E44) each produced C7
events at 10/2352Z and 11/1854Z respectively. The third C7 event was
observed at 11/1004Z from behind the east limb near N25. The
activity behind the NE limb portends the return of old Region 1402
(N26, L=218). Region 1416 continued its growth phase, both in area
and spot count, and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
At about 10/1900Z, a 27 degree long segmented filament erupted in
the NE quadrant of the disk. The ENE to WSW oriented filament was
centered at N29E14. An associated CME was observed lifting of the NE
limb, first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2012Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (12 - 14
February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar
wind speeds decreased steadily through the period from 450 km/s to
about 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12
- 13 February) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late
on day two and through day three (14 February), field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high
latitude minor storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to
anticipated effects from the 10 February CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| Clase M | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Feb 112 Previsto 12 Feb-14 Feb 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 11 Feb 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/008-011/012-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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