Viendo archivo del domingo, 29 enero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 029 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Two new regions
emerged on the disk during the period: Region 1412 (S15W41) and
Region 1413 (N08E38). Both regions were magnetically simple Beta,
B-type groups. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class activity for the next
three days (30 January - 01 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The period
began with ACE satellite wind velocities at about 450 km/s and
exhibited slow decay to end the period near 380 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond
+/- 4 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at
27/1900Z, reached a maximum of 11 pfu at 27/2140Z and ended at
28/2120Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z was still in
progress at the time of this report, but flux levels had decayed to
below 100 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods on day one (30 January). This increase
in activity is due to anticipated effects from the CME associated
with the 27 January X1 flare. Quiet to unsettled conditions with
isolated active periods are expected on day two (31 January) due to
residual CME effects. By day three (01 February), mostly quiet
conditions are expected. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
levels, at geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay to below
event threshold by 30/1800Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Jan a 01 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Jan 110 Previsto 30 Jan-01 Feb 110/110/115 Media de 90 Días 29 Jan 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Jan 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 014/018-007/008-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Jan a 01 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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