Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 enero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 021 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Isolated low-level C-class
flares were observed. Plage Region 1396 (N25W86) produced a C1 x-ray
flare at 20/2112Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated
shock velocity 945 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME). Region 1402 (N29W11) produced a long-duration C1 at
20/2333Z associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1402
showed gradual trailer spot decay during the period and was
classified as a Cko group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region
1401 (N17W14) also showed gradual trailer spot decay and was
classified as an Ehi group with a beta magnetic classification. New
Regions 1408 (N08E69) and 1409 (N16E50) were numbered. Both were
small and simply-structured.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (22 - 24 January) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with brief active to
minor storm levels at high latitudes. A weak interplanetary shock
was observed at the ACE spacecraft at around 21/0400Z. This was
followed by a weak geomagnetic sudden impulse at 21/0502Z (7 nT,
Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (22
January). Activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to active
levels at around 22/1800Z and continue into day 2 (23 January) due
to the expected arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January.
There will also be a chance for minor storm levels during the CME
passage. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 3 (24 January) as CME effects subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jan 142 Previsto 22 Jan-24 Jan 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 21 Jan 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 009/010-020/025-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
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