Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 enero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 020 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low with no flares detected.
Region 1401 (N15W01) showed intermediate spot development during the
period and was classified as an Eki group with beta magnetic
structure. Region 1402 (N28E03) showed no significant changes and
was classified as a Dki group with beta magnetic structure. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (21 - 23 January) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1401 or 1402.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and
continued through the end of the period. The enhancement was
associated with the long-duration M3/2n flare observed on 19
January.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of
day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with
a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jan 141 Previsto 21 Jan-23 Jan 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 20 Jan 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 004/005-010/010-010/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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