Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 diciembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 349 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Dec 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two, low level C-class flares during the past 24 hours, both of which appeared to be from Region 1367 which is behind west limb. There was a marked decrease in activity and background levels after 0900Z as Region 1367s loop tops rotated completely out view. Region 1374 (S17W26) continues to be the largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable. A coronal mass ejection/erupting prominence was observed from the southwest limb at about 0736Z but is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Very low levels are expected to prevail but there is still a chance for isolated C-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Dec a 18 Dec
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Dec 126
  Previsto   16 Dec-18 Dec  124/124/124
  Media de 90 Días        15 Dec 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/003
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Dec a 18 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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