Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 diciembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 343 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Dec 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1374 (S17E54) produced
a C3 flare at 09/1320Z. Region 1374 had separation occurring within
the main spot. Growth was noted in Regions 1375 (N09E52) and 1372
(N08E03).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period
at high latitudes occurring during the 09/1200-1500Z period. Solar
wind speed has remained relatively constant between 300 to 330 km/s
while the total magnetic field has increased from 3 nT to 8 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on Day 1 (10 December). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight
chance for active periods on Day 2 (11 December) due to effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A return to mostly quiet
conditions is expected on day 3 (12 December).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Dec a 12 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Dec 144 Previsto 10 Dec-12 Dec 145/145/140 Media de 90 Días 09 Dec 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Dec 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Dec a 12 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 13% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 03% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 13% | 15% | 13% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 08% | 05% | 08% |
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