Viendo archivo del lunes, 28 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 332 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
period was a C3 at 28/1830Z from Region 1361 (N18E21). Region 1361
had decay in its intermediate spots with slight growth in its
trailer spot. Region 1362 (N07E60) has shown numerous smaller
trailer spots since rotating further into view. An eruptive
filament was first observed at 28/0534Z in SDO AIA 304 imagery near
Region 1362. A CME, likely associated with this event, was seen
shortly after in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 28/0809Z. The
ejecta was mostly directed off the west limb as observed in
SOHO/LASCO imagery. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event above 10 PFUs began at 26/1125Z, reached a maximum flux of 80
PFUs at 27/0125Z, and ended at 28/0145Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods on days 1-2 (29-30 November). Activity is due to a
combination of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and the
coronal mass ejection (CME) from 26/0712Z. On day 3 (01 December)
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Nov a 01 Dec
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Nov 138 Previsto 29 Nov-01 Dec 140/145/145 Media de 90 Días 28 Nov 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 012/018-011/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Nov a 01 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 38% | 31% | 17% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 12% | 04% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 00% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 16% | 15% | 16% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 43% | 43% | 22% |
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