Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 17 0005 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1319 (N11W13) produced
the most activity during the period, including a C6 x-ray event at
16/1514Z as well as numerous other low level C-class events. Region
1317 (S26E01) produced a slow rise C1/Sf flare at 16/1355Z with
associated type II and type IV radio sweeps shortly after. The
estimated Type II speed was 618 km/s. No partial or full halo
signature indicating an Earth directed CME has been observed by SOHO
LASCO, nor was a feature ascertainable on STEREO coronagraph imagery
at the time of this report. Please note that there was an error on
the location of Region 1321 on the Solar Region Summary issued at 0030Z
on 16 October. The actual location of Region 1321 was S14E50.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare over the next 3 days (17-19
October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 16/03-06Z due to weak CH HSS effects.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (17-19 October) as
weak CH HSS effects continue to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 151 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 150/150/150 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 004/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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