Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1305 (N12W12)
produced an M1/1n flare at 01/0959Z associated with an
Earth-directed CME. The CME became visible in STEREO imagery at
01/1109Z and has an estimated speed of 500 km/s. Region 1302
(N16W41) produced a Sf optical flare immediately before the M1 flare
at 01/0917Z. The two events were associated with a pair of Type II
Sweeps (620 km/s at 01/0906Z and 850 km/s at 01/0955Z), a Type IV
Sweep and a 180 sfu Tenflare. Region 1305 has grown slightly in area
and spot number and has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1302 maintains an area of 700 millionths and a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class event from Regions
1302 and 1305 for the next three days (02-04 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods from 01/0000-0600Z as measured by the Boulder magnetometer.
The activity was a result of multiple solar sector boundary
crossings. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 October) due to
effects from the coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects
from the CME observed on 29 September. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day two (03 October). Quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active and isolated minor storm periods are expected on
day three (04 October) due to a combination of the CMEs observed on
30 September and 01 October. The two CMEs are due to arrive early
and late on day three, respectively.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 137 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/008-005/005-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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