Viendo archivo del domingo, 4 septiembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M3 x-ray event observed on the west limb at 04/1145Z. This event originated from the west limb spot group complex consisting of Regions 1280 (N13W91) and 1286 (N20W75). Close proximity to the limb made precise analysis of the flare location difficult. Associated with the M3 event was a west limb CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1212Z. A plane-of-sky speed was estimated at about 400 km/s. Preceding this event was another west limb CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 04/0912Z. A plane-of-sky speed was estimated at about 150 km/s. Analysis of the potential geoeffectiveness of these CMEs is ongoing. Numerous C-class flares were also observed during the period from this area of the west limb. Region 1287 (S32E51) produced a C1 x-ray event early in the period at 03/2212Z. This region showed minor growth in area while the remaining regions on the disk indicated a slight decay in area coupled with loss of spots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (05 - 07 September). A chance for additional M-class activity exists through 06 September.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated wind speeds varied predominately between 350 to 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (05 September) due to continuing effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By days two and three (06 - 07 September), the field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
Clase M25%15%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Sep 119
  Previsto   05 Sep-07 Sep  120/115/105
  Media de 90 Días        04 Sep 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep  009/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  007/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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