Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 25 2235 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF Número 268 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Regions 1302 (N12E36) and
1303 (S28W79) each produced three M-class flares. The largest was
an M7/2N at 25/0450Z. A partial halo CME was observed at 24/1936Z
in LASCO C2 imagery which was likely associated with the M3 flare
from Region 1302 that occurred at 24/1921Z. The event had an
associated Type II (1369 km/s) and an approximate plane of sky speed
of 800 km/s using LASCO C3 imagery. The majority of the ejecta was
directed off the North East limb. Two more CMEs were observed at
25/0236Z and 25/0312Z off the Southwest limb in LASCO C2 imagery,
however, they are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at high levels with a chance for isolated X-class flares from Region
1302.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. At approximately 25/1106Z,
the IMF Bt increased from 5 nT to 10 nT while the field
density increased to around 7 p/cc at the ACE spacecraft. A sudden
impulse (14 nT) was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 25/1151Z.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 23/2255Z, reached
a peak of 27.3 PFUs at 25/2030Z, and continues to remain above the
10 PFU threshold.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions with major
storm periods possible at high latitudes on day 1 (26 September) due
to activity from the CME associated with the M7 flare that occurred
at 24/1320Z. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on days 2-3
(27-28 September) due to continued activity from the CME as well as
a possible glancing blow from a weak CME on day 3. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to remain above threshold
for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Sep a 28 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 80% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Sep 169 Previsto 26 Sep-28 Sep 170/170/170 Media de 90 Días 25 Sep 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Sep 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 025/030-012/012-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Sep a 28 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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