Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 252 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1283 (N17W55)
produced two M-class flares. The first was an M2/1n at 09/0611Z with
an associated Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 717 km/sec)
and a non-geoeffective CME. The second was an M1/1f at 09/1249Z.
Region 1283 showed penumbral and trailer spot decay. Region 1289
(N22E37) developed a trailer spot with penumbra. New Region 1290
(S15E29) was numbered during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (10 - 12 September) with a slight chance
for another X-class flare from Region 1283.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels then
increased to active to major storm levels after 09/1245Z. An
isolated severe storm period was observed from 09/1500 - 1800Z. Two
sudden impulses (SI) were observed at 09/1243Z and 09/1250Z (16nT
and 28nT respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). At 09/1150Z, ACE data indicated an interplanetary
shock arrival preceding the Boulder SIs. Bt reached up to 25nT, Bz
dropped to -23nT, density spiked up to 35p/cc, wind speeds peaked at
602km/s, and temperature increased. Activity was due to combined
CMEs associated with 06 - 07 September major flare activity. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active on day 1 (10 September) due to continuing CME
effects. Activity is expected to decrease on day 2 (11 September) to
unsettled levels with a chance for active periods as CME effects
subside, but a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
will become geoeffective. Day 3 (12 September) unsettled activity is
expected to continue under the effects of the CH HSS. There will be
a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Sep 112 Previsto 10 Sep-12 Sep 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 09 Sep 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Sep 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 018/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 020/022-012/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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