Viendo archivo del jueves, 8 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 251 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1283 (N16W42) produced
two major flares. The first was an X1/3b at 07/2238Z associated with
weak Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 1300 sfu Tenflare, and a
non-Earth-directed CME. The second was an M6/1n at 08/1546Z
associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1283 maintained a
weak delta magnetic within the northern portion of its leader spots
and showed trailer spot development during the period. Region 1289
(N21E51) also showed trailer spot development during the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 September) with a chance for
another X-class flare from Region 1283.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels until late on day 1 (09 September).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels late on 09
September with a chance for active levels due to a CME arrival. A
further increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for
minor storm levels is expected on day 2 (10 September) as the CME
passage continues. A decrease to unsettled levels is expected on day
3 (11 September). There will be a chance for a greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Sep a 11 Sep
| Clase M | 75% | 70% | 65% |
| Clase X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Sep 110 Previsto 09 Sep-11 Sep 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 08 Sep 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Sep 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 010/012-020/022-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Sep a 11 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 01% |
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