Viendo archivo del martes, 6 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 249 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1283
(N14W18) produced an M5/1b flare at 06/0150Z associated with Types
II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed full-halo CME. The CME
had an estimated speed of around 450 km/sec, based upon STEREO-A
COR2 data, with the bulk of the ejecta directed north of the
ecliptic plane. Region 1283 appeared to develop a magnetic delta
configuration in its north-central portion and was classified as an
Eai-type with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Old Region
1286 (N20, L = 310) produced multiple CMEs from beyond the west
limb, none of which were Earth-directed. New Region 1289 (N24E78)
was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (07 - 09 September) with more M-class
flare activity likely from Region 1283.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. Proton flux
enhancements at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV began
around 06/0300Z at geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the M5 flare
mentioned above.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
September). The halo-CME mentioned above is not expected to affect
the field during the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Sep 112 Previsto 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/105/100 Media de 90 Días 06 Sep 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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