Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1263 (N17, L=301)
produced a C6 x-ray flare from beyond the west limb. New regions
1269 (S22E17) and 1270 (S23E54) were numbered today; both are small
and magnetically simple. A CME was observed on the west limb,
evident in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 11/1036Z. Material movement and
subsequent darkening was observed in STEREO-A EUV imagery beginning
at approximately 11/1005Z. This CME is not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C class x-ray event throughout
the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continued to decline and ended the period near 400 km/s.
The Phi angle briefly switched to negative between 11/10Z and
11/12Z. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
remained around zero. A shock was observed in the STEREO-A beacon
data at roughly 11/0600Z. This is most likely the arrival of the 09
August CME from Region 1263. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (12-14
August).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Aug 084 Previsto 12 Aug-14 Aug 085/085/090 Media de 90 Días 11 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 005/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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