Viendo archivo del domingo, 7 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 219 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only low level C-flares were
observed from Regions 1263 (N17W55) and 1267 (S17W00). Region 1263
exhibited motion and growth within its central and trailing spots;
merging of trailing spots with the central spots produced an
additional delta configuration in the group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. M-flares are likely and there is a slight chance
for an X-flare and/or proton event with Region 1263 as the most
likely source.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed
increased to 600 km/s at the beginning of the period and has been
slowly decreasing since approximately 06/2218Z. The solar sector
(phi angle) remained generally positive suggesting the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream. The period ended with solar wind
speed around 500 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 August as the effects of the
high speed stream weaken. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
09-10 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Aug 105 Previsto 08 Aug-10 Aug 100/095/085 Media de 90 Días 07 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 014/031 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 008/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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