Viendo archivo del miércoles, 3 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 215 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N16W37) produced
the largest event of the period, an M6/2B flare at 03/1348Z. It was
accompanied by a 10cm radio burst (180 sfu), Type II (812 km/s) and
IV emissions. A CME was subsequently observed in STEREO-A COR2
imagery at 03/1409Z. Time-height extrapolation from LASCO C3
imagery indicated a speed of 624 km/s. Region 1263 (N17W06) also
produced an M1/1F flare at 03/0432Z. Both regions were classified
as Dki type spot groups with beta-gamma and beta-gamma-delta
magnetic characteristics respectively. A weak CME was also observed
in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at approximately 03/0109Z but was not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to remain
moderate to high for the next three days (04-06 Aug) under the
continued threat of a major event. Regions 1261 and 1263 are most
likely to produce activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. Wind speeds at the
ACE spacecraft were near 360 km/s and Bz was near zero. A slight
enhancement in 10 MeV protons was observed at both ACE and the
GOES-13 satellite, but remained below alert thresholds.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (04 Aug), becoming active on
days 2 and 3 (05-06 Aug), with a slight chance of minor to major
storms at high latitudes. The increased geomagnetic activity is
associated with the arrivals of CMEs from 02 and 03 August. The 10
MeV protons are likely to exceed the 10 pfu threshold with CME
passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 55% | 55% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Aug 120 Previsto 04 Aug-06 Aug 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 03 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Aug 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-020/025-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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