Viendo archivo del miércoles, 27 julio 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 208 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jul 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1260 (N18E30) produced a M1/1n flare at 1607Z as well as numerous C-class flares during the past 24 hours. This region showed some magnetic complexity (magnetic class beta-gamma) and changed steadily throughout the day. Region 1261 (N15E60) is the largest group on the disk (250 millionths) but is a simple magnetic beta group and only produced one subflare during the day. New Region 1262 (N16W38) was assigned and is a small D-type group with a weak delta configuration in the trailing portion of the group. Despite its magnetic complexity 1262 did not produce any flares. The eruption of a filament from the northeast quadrant was observed at about 0620Z and was associated with a faint, slow coronal mass ejection off the northeast limb as observed by the LASCO C2 coronagraph beginning at 0642Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low but there is a chance for additional isolated M-class flares from Region 1260.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (28-30 July). Recent analysis from Stereo-B and solar imagery suggest that the previously anticipated high speed stream from a coronal hole is most likely to start affecting Earth on 31 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jul a 30 Jul
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Jul 099
  Previsto   28 Jul-30 Jul  100/100/105
  Media de 90 Días        27 Jul 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jul  005/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jul a 30 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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