Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 julio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 197 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jul 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1254 (S22E36) produced the largest flare of the
period, a B6 event at 16/1705Z. The remaining regions on the visible
disk remained quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (17-19 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, has remained
nominal, around 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for day one (17 July).
An increase from quiet to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on
days two and three (18-19 July) as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jul 094 Previsto 17 Jul-19 Jul 094/092/092 Media de 90 Días 16 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jul 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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