Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1234
(S16W61) produced occasional B- and C-class flares during the
period, the largest of which was a C3/Sn at 17/2342Z. Region 1234
showed an increase in interior spots and maintained a simple beta
magnetic configuration. Region 1236 (N17E18) showed a gradual loss
of trailer spots during the period, but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. New Region 1237 (S15E53) was numbered early
in the period and was classified as a simple Axx-type. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (19 - 21 June). There will also be a chance for
an isolated M-class flare during days 1 - 2 (19 - 20 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels through the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain at quiet levels on day 1 (19 June). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3
(20 - 21 June), with a chance for brief active periods, due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jun a 21 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jun 099 Previsto 19 Jun-21 Jun 100/100/095 Media de 90 Días 18 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jun a 21 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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