Viendo archivo del martes, 14 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 165 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels during the period. New
Region 1236 (N17E64) rotated onto the disk as a D-type spot group
and produced two low-level C-class events. A north-south oriented
filament channel, located near the SE limb, erupted during the
period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed material movement along the
large channel, first visible at 14/0609Z, and movement continued
through about 14/1500Z. Associated with the filament eruption was a
partial halo CME off the east limb, first visible in STEREO-Behind
COR2 imagery at 14/0810Z. A plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at
about 750 km/s. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days
of the forecast period (15 - 17 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period observed between 14/0900 - 1200Z. This
activity was due to continued effects from a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. During the period, solar wind velocities rose
steadily from near 450 km/s to about 550 km/s. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 8 nT while Bt
varied between 5 and 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton
enhancement, present since 11 June, decayed to background levels
early on 14 June.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (15 June),
with a chance for active levels due to continued high speed stream
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
days two and three (16 - 17 June) as high speed stream effects
subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jun 099 Previsto 15 Jun-17 Jun 100/105/105 Media de 90 Días 14 Jun 103
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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