Viendo archivo del martes, 31 mayo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 151 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 1226 (S22E27) and
Region 1227 (S18E39) each produced C1 x-ray events in the past 24
hours. Region 1226 was classified as a Dhc group with Beta magnetic
characteristics while Region 1227 was a Dsi group with more complex
Beta-Gamma characteristics. Region 1228 (N17E50) rapidly evolved
into a Cso type group as new trailing spots emerged. New Region
1230 (N19E58) was numbered today. This new region, and the remainng
regions, were generally quiescent, small and magnetically simple.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days (1 -
3 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels over the
past 24 hours. Heliospheric imagery from STEREO-B suggests the
increased activity was the result of a transient, weak CME. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (01 Jun) , quiet to
unsettled on day 2 (02 Jun), and unsettled to active on day 3 (03
Jun). ENLIL model output indicates the passage of the 29 May CME
early on day 1. A brief return to generally quiet conditions on day
2 is followed by disturbed conditions on day 3 as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream begins to influence the
magnetosphere.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 May 112 Previsto 01 Jun-03 Jun 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 31 May 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 May 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 May 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 010/010-007/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 15% |
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