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Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Newly-numbered
Region 1210 (N20E08) produced occasional B-class flares and isolated
low-level C-class flares. Region 1210 was classified as a Dsi group
with a beta magnetic configuration. A C5 flare occurred at 09/2059Z,
associated with an event from beyond the northeast limb. New Region
1211 (S12W23) was numbered. It was classified as a Bxo group with a
simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (10 - 12 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (10 May)
as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to
disturb the field. Quiet to active levels are expected during days 2
- 3 (11 - 12 May) as the CH HSS persists.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 May a 12 May
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 May 104 Previsto 10 May-12 May 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 09 May 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 May 000/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 May 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/008-012/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 May a 12 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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