Viendo archivo del miércoles, 30 marzo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 089 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Mar 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated B- and C-class flares were observed from Region 1176 (S17W37) and Region 1183 (N15E27). Region 1176 showed magnetic simplification and was classified as an Fso group with a beta magnetic structure. Region 1183 showed a minor increase in spot count and area and was classified as an Eai group with a beta magnetic structure. Two filaments disappeared during the period. The first was 9 degrees in extent, centered near N48E16, and disappeared early in the period. The second was 7 degrees in extent, centered near S27E21, and disappeared around mid-period. There was no significant CME activity associated with either disappearance. A back-sided partial-halo CME was observed early in the period, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 29/2024Z, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 1075 km/sec. The source of the CME was an active region about a day beyond the northeast limb. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (31 March - 02 April) with a chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period was observed during 30/0000 - 0300Z, followed by quiet levels for the rest of the period. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) was observed at 30/0018Z (12 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity was associated with a period of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection -8 nT at 29/2306Z) combined with increased IMF Bt (peak 15 nT at 29/2359Z).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (31 March - 01 April) with a chance for brief active levels due to recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (02 April) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Mar a 02 Apr
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Mar 118
  Previsto   31 Mar-02 Apr  125/130/135
  Media de 90 Días        30 Mar 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Mar  002/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  007/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Mar a 02 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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