Viendo archivo del domingo, 27 marzo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 086 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Mar 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1176 (S15E02) produced a C3/Sf at 27/0014Z with discrete radio emissions. Associated with this event was a CME, first observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 27/0200Z and 27/0242Z respectively. The CME appeared as a narrow band extending east, as viewed in LASCO, and had an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 630 km/s. SDO/AIA 193 imagery indicated material movement in a wide band extending north through east with stronger movement in an easterly direction. Region 1176 showed little change during the period. At 27/0511Z, Type II (estimated shock velocity of 651 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures were observed. GOES13 and 15 were in eclipse phase, so GOES XRS data was not available. At 27/0512Z, limited GOES-15 SXI data indicated surging and material movement off the NE limb in the vicinity of new Region 1183 (N15E62). LASCO C2 (27/0536Z) and C3 (27/0606Z) imagery detected an asymmetric, partial-halo CME lifting off the NE limb with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 880 km/s. New Region 1183 rotated on as a large, 8-spot E-type group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1182 (N13E01) evolved on the disk as a single spot unipolar group. The remaining groups were quiet and stable during the period. At this time, neither CMEs observed on 27 March appeared to have an Earth-directed component. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and 90 day mean are estimated due to non-receipt of 27 Marchs flux reading.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days (28-30 March). A chance for M-class activity exists on day one (28 March) becoming likely on days two and three (29 - 30 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity on 29 - 30 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the complex nature of Regions 1176 and 1183 plus the return of old Regions 1166 (N10, L=110) on 28 March and 1169 (N17, L=078) on 30 March. On their last transit across the disk, these regions produced a total of six M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities were low, varying between 300 to 370 Km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF was generally north through a majority of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on day one (28 March) due to possible effects from the 24 March CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day two (29 March). By day three (30 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Mar a 30 Mar
Clase M50%60%70%
Clase X05%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Mar 117
  Previsto   28 Mar-30 Mar  125/125/130
  Media de 90 Días        27 Mar 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Mar  001/001
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  001/001
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Mar a 30 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%10%20%
Tormenta Menor05%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%15%25%
Tormenta Menor10%01%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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