Viendo archivo del lunes, 21 marzo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 080 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Mar 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Isolated
C-class flares were observed, the largest of which was a
long-duration C4 at 21/1719Z from newly-numbered Region 1176
(S13E81). Region 1176 was the return of old Region 1165, which
produced M-class flares during its previous rotation. SOHO/LASCO
images showed a halo-CME, first visible in C2 images at 21/0236Z.
The halo-CME was determined to be a backside event associated with a
flare from old Region 1169 (N20, L=061).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (22 - 24 March) with a chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1176.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 21/1950Z and was in
progress at the time of this report. Stereo-A EUVI 195 images
indicated the source for the proton event was likely a flare from
old Region 1169 which also spawned the back sided halo-CME mentioned
above.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (22 - 23 March).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (24 March) as a coronal hole high-speed stream
begins to disturb the field. The greater than 10 MeV event at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to end on day 1 (March 22).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Mar 101 Previsto 22 Mar-24 Mar 115/125/135 Media de 90 Días 21 Mar 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Mar 002/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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