Viendo archivo del lunes, 7 marzo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 066 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Mar 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Regions 1164 (N24W59), 1165 (S20W78), and 1166 (N11E12) produced M-class events during the past 24 hours, all of which contain a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1166 produced a M1/Sf observed at 07/1430Z with an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1164 produced a M3 at 07/2012Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and a Tenflare that was in progress at this report time. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed a full halo CME (a further analysis is underway). Images from the C2 first observed the CME at 07/1448Z while the C3 imagery first observed the event at 07/1518Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are estimated for today (07 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate on day one (08 March) with M-class events expected. Solar activity for days two and three (09-10 March) are expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event as Regions 1165 and 1164 transit around the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (08-10 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Mar a 10 Mar
Clase M75%50%40%
Clase X10%05%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Mar 153
  Previsto   08 Mar-10 Mar  150/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        07 Mar 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Mar  003/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  006/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Mar a 10 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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