Viendo archivo del lunes, 21 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 052 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 1161 (N11W42)
produced multiple C-class events and remains an E-type sunspot group
with a beta-gamma magnetic classification, while Region 1162
(N17W46) remained stable and quiet. The periods largest x-ray event
a C7 at 21/1012Z came from Region 1158 which has rotated off the
visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class event from Region
1161 for the next three days (22-24 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft indicated a slight
drop in velocity to around 380 km/s and sustained negative Bz of
-4nT during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods during the next three days (22-24 February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Feb a 24 Feb
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Feb 097 Previsto 22 Feb-24 Feb 098/098/095 Media de 90 Días 21 Feb 086
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Feb 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Feb a 24 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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