Viendo archivo del domingo, 13 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 044 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S20W03)
produced an M6/1N flare at 13/1738Z associated with a 130 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1119 km/s).
Region 1158 grew in area and developed a complex E-type sunspot
group with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1157
(N18W30) and Region 1159 (N19W01) both grew slightly but remain
magnetically simple while Region 1160 (N16E74) decayed to spotless
plage.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for a major x-ray event for days one thru
three (14-16 February). Region 1158 continued growth and recent
major flare make this region the most likely source for a major
event. There is a slight chance for C-class activity from Region
1157 and Region 1159.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind data from the ACE
satellite indicate a drop in solar wind velocity to approximately
310 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (14 February). Quiet
to unsettled with a chance for active conditions are expected on
days two and three (15-16 February), due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Feb 107 Previsto 14 Feb-16 Feb 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 13 Feb 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/005-010/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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