Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 enero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jan 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 014 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jan 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Old region 1138 (N12, L=323),
which has yet to rotate onto the visible disk, produced a long
duration C1 x-ray event at 14/0330Z associated with a CME off the
northeast limb. Region 1145 (N16W25) redeveloped spots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (15 - 17 January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at mid-latitudes between 14/1500 - 1800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 January)
as the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) become geoeffective. Quiet levels are expected on days two and
three (16 -17 January) as effects from the CH HSS wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jan 079 Previsto 15 Jan-17 Jan 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 14 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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