Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 diciembre 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Dec 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 349 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Dec 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Spotless Region 1135 (N18E30)
produced a C5 x-ray flare at 15/0639Z. The only spotted group on
the visible solar disk is Region 1133 (N13W74). It is classified as
an H-type group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued influence
from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds were
averaging just above 600 km/s at the start of the forecast period
and ended with speeds around 550 km/s at reporting time. The
interplanetary Bz ranged from -/+ 4nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, for the next three days (16-18 December) due to the
continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Dec a 18 Dec
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Dec 087 Previsto 16 Dec-18 Dec 087/086/084 Media de 90 Días 15 Dec 083
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Dec 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Dec 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 007/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Dec a 18 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 02% | 01% | 02% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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