Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 agosto 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Aug 14 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N18W58) produced a
C4/Sf flare at 14/1005Z with an associated CME. The STEREO-A
spacecraft observed a full-halo signature first visible on COR2 at
14/1109Z. A Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 406 km/s) was
also observed with this event.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit
exceeded threshold at 14/1230Z with a peak flux of 14 pfu at
14/1245Z. The event ended at 14/1410Z. The source is believed to be
region 1099.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. The
increase in activity is in response to a coronal hole high-speed
stream on days one and two (15 - 16 August). The activity on day
three (17 August) is in response to the CME observed on 14 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Aug 085 Previsto 15 Aug-17 Aug 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 14 Aug 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 007/008-010/012-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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