Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 diciembre 2008
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2008 Dec 11 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 346 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Dec 2008IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1009 (S25W73) produced a
C1 flare today at 0925Z as well as a few B-class flares. The region
continues to be a small, relatively simple spot group as it
approaches the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low in general. There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class
flare during the first day (12 December) as Region 1009 rotates
around the solar limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be initially quiet tomorrow but an increase to unsettled
with a chance for active levels is expected late on the first day
(12 December) lasting partway through the second day (13 December)
as a high speed solar wind stream rotates into geoeffective
position. Activity is expected to be generally quiet on the third
day (14 December).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Dec a 14 Dec
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Dec 070 Previsto 12 Dec-14 Dec 070/070/070 Media de 90 Días 11 Dec 068
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Dec a 14 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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