Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 septiembre 2008
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2008 Sep 04 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 248 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2008IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet to unsettled, but activity
increased to minor to major storm levels from 0000-0600Z. Active
levels prevailed from 0600-1500Z, after which conditions decreased
to unsettled levels. The activity was driven by a prolonged period
of southward Bz (about -10 nT) occurring together with elevated
solar wind speeds. Solar wind velocity continued to rise during the
past 24 hours with day-end values near 600 km/s. The solar wind
signatures are generally consistent with a high speed stream from a
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first day (05 September)
as the high speed wind stream is expected to continue. Conditions
should gradually decline to predominantly unsettled for the second
day (06 September) and quiet to unsettled for the third day (07
September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Sep 066 Previsto 05 Sep-07 Sep 066/066/066 Media de 90 Días 04 Sep 066
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 015/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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