Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 enero 2008
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2008 Jan 16 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 016 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jan 2008IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled under the continued
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
at ACE peaked at approximately 700 km/s during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day one of the forecast period (17 Jan)
as the influence of the high speed stream wanes. Isolated active
periods, particularly at high latitudes, are still possible.
STEREO-B data suggest a downward trend in solar wind speed and
magnetic activity over the next 40 hours, so by days two and three
(18-19 Jan) conditions should return to quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jan 073 Previsto 17 Jan-19 Jan 070/070/070 Media de 90 Días 16 Jan 074
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 010/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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