Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 diciembre 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Dec 15 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 349 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Dec 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S10W52)
produced several low B-class flares. This region is now a magnetic
beta configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 978 could produce an isolated low level C-class
flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
A recurrent coronal hole is
expected to become geoeffective 16-18 December. The geomagnetic
field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 December. Active
conditions are expected for 17 December with a chance for isolated
minor storm periods at mid latitudes and isolated major storming at
high latitudes. Unsettled levels with isolated active periods are
expected for 18 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Dec a 18 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Dec 089 Previsto 16 Dec-18 Dec 085/085/080 Media de 90 Días 15 Dec 071
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 008/010-020/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Dec a 18 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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