Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 diciembre 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Dec 10 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 344 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Dec 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S08E14) grew
in complexity over the past day and is currently a beta-gamma
magnetic type.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low. The trend in Region 978 suggest a good chance
for C-class activity..
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds at
ACE began to increase, approaching 440 km/s by 1800Z. Temperature
and density trends also signal the approach of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled early in the period as the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Occasional
active periods may occur, particularly at high latitudes.
Extrapolation from STEREO Behind suggests a peak speed near 600 km/s
by 11 November at 1000Z. The disturbed conditions are exptected to
diminish by 13 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Dec 087 Previsto 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/085/080 Media de 90 Días 10 Dec 068
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Dec 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/012-008/010-007/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 06% | 06% | 06% |
All times in UTC
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