Viendo archivo del sábado, 20 octubre 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Oct 20 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Oct 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be
spotless.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled
to active levels prevailed from the beginning of the period through
1200Z, after which conditions declined to quiet to unsettled levels
through the end of the period. Real-time solar wind observations
from ACE show the continued presence of a recurrent high speed solar
wind stream; solar wind velocity varied between 600-680 km/s
throughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous altitude reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the first day
(21 October), although there is a chance for isolated active periods
early in the day due to persistence from the high speed stream.
Conditions are expected to be quiet for the second day (22 October)
and quiet to unsettled for the third day (23 October).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Oct 067 Previsto 21 Oct-23 Oct 067/067/067 Media de 90 Días 20 Oct 068
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 007/010-005/005-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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