Viendo archivo del domingo, 3 junio 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Jun 03 2206 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 154 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jun 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 960
(S09E50) produced three M-class flares; an M2.4 at 03/0159 UTC, an
M7.0 at 03/0212 UTC, and an M4.5 with an associated 330 sfu Tenflare
at 03/0641UTC. Region 960 also produced a C5.3 flare at 03/0928
UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (speed 522 km/s). This
event is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 960 has been
classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with an area of
approximately 540 millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-class flare from
Region 960.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
increased from approximately 370 km/s to 500 km/s from 03/1200 UTC
until 03/2100 UTC. Based on the potential for significant flare
activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 04 June. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 05 and 06 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jun a 06 Jun
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jun 087 Previsto 04 Jun-06 Jun 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 03 Jun 073
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jun 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jun a 06 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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